The latest key business cycle indicators for the Republic of Turkey are confusing and, in some cases, contradictory. These conflicting signals suggest that Turkey’s economy is embroiled in turmoil.
Turkey’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on a Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) basis did expand in October 2019 increasing at a mediocre annual rate of 2%. Turkey’s economy is underperforming compared to the world average improvement of 4.7% at October 2019 from one year earlier.
Considering prior economic history, business cycle slowdowns typically happen within roughly 8 to 16 months from a peak in a country’s GDP.
GDP tracks a long-term growth trend via business cycles of growth or recession that repeat approximately every 5 years or so, albeit that no two business cycles mirror the same duration or size. America’s National Bureau of Economic Research states that there were 33 business cycles from 1854 to 2009.
Also, cyclical indicators are erratic with multiple major influences. Even more confusing is the fact that no consensus exists for which indicators universally trigger business cycles in all cases.
To impose some structure on this chaos, The Economist organizes its benchmarks into 3 critical categories: leading indicators that turn in advance of a cycle change; coincident indicators that define when the overall business cycle turns; and lagging indicators that top out following a business cycle.
Turkey’s Leading Business Cycle Indicators
Turkey’s prime lending rate remains high at 12%. Yet that costly drag on economic growth is a marked improvement from even more extreme interest rates during 2018.
Two of the other selected leading indicators below deteriorated over the 12 months representing the latest reporting period. Building permits in Turkey slumped by over half. On the people side at ground level, the psychological component measuring consumer confidence dropped year over year.
In contrast, business confidence, retail sales and new car sales all posted signs of improvement for the Turkish economy.
The Economist estimates that an economy hits its highest level about 8 to 16 months after business and consumer confidence starts to drop. There are shorter timeframes in advance of an economy’s GDP peak for slowdowns in car sales (6 months) and building permits (2 to 3 months).
- Interest rates: 12% at Dec. 2019 (down -2% from one year earlier)
- Business confidence: 98.31324 points at Oct. 2019 (up 3% from 95.45615)
- Building permits: 57,529 at Oct. 2019 (down -58.3% from 91,057)
- Consumer confidence: 94.20595 at Sep. 2019 (down -2% from 96.13668)
- Retail sales: Up 5.69% at Oct. 2019 (reversing down -6.33%)
- New car sales: 93,495 vehicles at Nov. 2019 (up 9.1% from 85,723)
Business confidence is an indicator based on opinion surveys revealing how pessimistically or optimistically business managers perceive their companies’ future potential and therefore can anticipate turning points in economic activity. In contrast, consumer confidence measures public opinions on standardized questions about household finances, a country’s economy in general as well as plans for major purchases on durable products lasting over a year or buying a home or an automobile.
Building permits mean official authorizations required before new building construction can proceed. Building permits are a leading macroeconomic indicator for both country and global business cycles. Typically, construction work starts immediately after a building permit is granted.
Retail sales refers to an aggregate measure of the percentage change in the retail sales index against the same month in the prior year. It measures consumer demand for finished goods and is considered a major macroeconomic indicator of whether an economy is moving towards contraction or expansion. Retail sales focus on volume changes only and exclude price level movements.
A country’s passenger car sales metric specifies the number of new passenger cars sold irrespective of price.
Turkey’s Coincident Business Cycle Indicators
Percent changes in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on a Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) basis are much-scrutinized headline numbers that define whether an economy is contracting or expanding. That’s because year-over-year GDP changes coincide with and thus signal the start of a recession or boom period.
The latest GDP on a PPP basis statistics reveal that the Turkey’s economic growth is modest.
- GDP: US$2.347 trillion at Oct. 2019 (up 2% from $2.3 trillion)
- GDP per capita: $28,264 at Oct. 2019 (up 0.8% from $28,044)
Please note that Turkey is the world’s 13th biggest economy. Its share of the world’s overall GDP of $141.860 trillion was 1.7% at October 2019, same as one year earlier.
In addition, Turkey’s GDP per capita income of $28,264 is about 1.5 times greater than the global average GDP per person of $18,391 as of October 2019.
Turkey’s Lagging Business Cycle Indicators
Turkey’s critical capital investment to GDP ratio slumped by about -4% from 2018 to 2019. Other key lagging indicators are mixed. The annual inflation rate in Turkey declined from 2018 to 2019, albeit remaining at a concerning level while Turkey’s jobless rate expanded.
Usually capital investment shadows GDP peaks and valleys via a 12-month delay. Both inflation and unemployment accelerate about 6 months after GDP reaches its maximum growth.
- Capital investment to GDP ratio: 25.624% in 2019 (down -3.955% from 29.579%)
- Unemployment rate: 13.831% in 2019 (up 2.9% from 10.955%)
- Inflation rate: 15.682% in 2019 (down -0.65% from 16.332%)
The ratio of capital investment to GDP is a lagging but future planning-oriented indicator. It records the value that a country spends on capital development and infrastructure projects divided by its overall GDP output on a PPP basis.
Unemployment rate is a percentage based on a country’s total labor force, not its full population. It is a critical metric since many mortgage holders experience severe difficulties paying their debt obligations once they become jobless.
Inflation rate documents the percentage change in average consumer prices in a country over a one-year period, and measures cost-of-living.
Research Reference Materials:
Forbes, Recession Is Overdue By 4.5 Years, Here’s How To Prepare. Accessed on January 10, 2020
MarkLines Automotive Industry Portal, Turkey Flash report, sales volume, 2019. Accessed on January 10, 2020
National Bureau of Economic Research, US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions. Accessed on January 10, 2020
The Economist, Guide to Economic Indicators: Making Sense of Economics (7th Edition). Accessed on January 10, 2020
Trading Economics, Turkey Chartered Banks Prime Lending Rate. Accessed on January 10, 2020
Wikipedia, Consumer confidence index. Accessed on January 10, 2020